U.S.-China Relations
Dale-Huang, A & R. Truex. (2025). “The End of Exchange: An Analysis of China Research at U.S. Universities.” Working Paper.
How is U.S.-China geopolitical competition affecting China-focused research at American universities and bilateral scientific cooperation? This article analyzes National Science Foundation grant awards related to China to study trends in U.S. scientific research in the context of intensifying great power relations. Compared to 2012–2017, the number of China related grants dropped by over 50 percent in 2018–2023. Most NSF directorates show some evidence of this pattern, and research projects that involve fieldwork or dissertation research have been especially hard hit. These trends do not appear to be reversing in the post-COVID-19 era and are unlikely to change in the near term. These findings have implications for U.S.-China relations, the U.S. government's understanding of China, and the global scientific enterprise.
Cerny, M. & R. Truex (2024). “Under Pressure: Attitudes Towards China Among American Foreign Policy Professionals." Working Paper.
How do career and reputational concerns affect China policy discourse within the Washington foreign policy community? We conducted over 50 semi-structured interviews and a novel survey experiment of nearly five-hundred American foreign policy and national security professionals about their views towards the People’s Republic of China. Contrary to concerns of a rigid consensus, we identify a noticeable diversity of policy perspectives among these professionals. However, many participants perceived a degree of what they referred to as “hawkflation" or “groupthink." Roughly one fourth of survey respondents noted instances of professional pressure to voice a more hawkish point of view towards China, and many feared being perceived as naive or compromised by their views on, ties to, and experiences in China. These pressures were particularly noteworthy for foreign policy professionals that are traditionally marginalized from power—those who are younger, non-white, or female. Our subjects reported a number of different strategies to cope with these pressures, including mirroring hawkish rhetoric in their advice, modifying or self-censoring their views in public settings, and even exiting the field entirely. Taken together, these social dynamics appear to foster perceptions of “consensus” and bias
The Psychology of Authoritarian Rule
Cerny, M. & R. Truex (2024). “Under Pressure: Attitudes Towards China Among American Foreign Policy Professionals." Working Paper.
How do career and reputational concerns affect China policy discourse within the Washington foreign policy community? We conducted over 50 semi-structured interviews and a novel survey experiment of nearly five-hundred American foreign policy and national security professionals about their views towards the People’s Republic of China. Contrary to concerns of a rigid consensus, we identify a noticeable diversity of policy perspectives among these professionals. However, many participants perceived a degree of what they referred to as “hawkflation" or “groupthink." Roughly one fourth of survey respondents noted instances of professional pressure to voice a more hawkish point of view towards China, and many feared being perceived as naive or compromised by their views on, ties to, and experiences in China. These pressures were particularly noteworthy for foreign policy professionals that are traditionally marginalized from power—those who are younger, non-white, or female. Our subjects reported a number of different strategies to cope with these pressures, including mirroring hawkish rhetoric in their advice, modifying or self-censoring their views in public settings, and even exiting the field entirely. Taken together, these social dynamics appear to foster perceptions of “consensus” and bias
Han, Z., N. Liu, & R. Truex. (forthcoming). “Word Association Tests for Political Science." Public Opinion Quarterly.
The standard practice to measuring political attitudes is to ask survey respondents to map their feelings onto a quantitative scale determined by the researcher. This approach, while widespread, suffers from a number of well-known problems. Such questions can be cognitively demanding, scales are different across cultures and even individuals of the same culture, and complex attitudes are reduced to a single number. In this paper, we advance the use of Word Association Tests (WATs), where respondents are presented a series of cue words and asked to provide other words that come to mind as quickly as possible. This approach more directly maps to how attitudes actually operate in the human mind, and it provides a richer set of data than a standard survey question. The paper develops and demonstrates the utility of WATs through an analysis of Chinese citizens’ attitudes towards the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Arceneaux, K., & Truex, R. (2023). Donald Trump and the lie. Perspectives on Politics, 21(3), 863-879.
The legitimacy of democratically elected governments rests in part on widespread acceptance of the outcome of elections, especially among those who lost. This “losers’ consent” allows the winners to govern, and when the incumbent is the losing party, it allows for a peaceful transition of power. What happens in a democratic system when one side not only refuses to concede but also actively perpetuates lies about the outcome? This article studies the evolution of public opinion about Donald Trump’s “big lie” using a rolling cross-sectional daily tracking survey, yielding 40 days of polls and more than 20,000 responses from US voters from October 27, 2020, through January 29, 2021. We find that the lie is pervasive and sticky: the number of Republicans and independents saying that they believe the election was fraudulent is substantial, and this proportion did not change appreciably over time or shift after important political developments. Belief in the lie may have buoyed some of Trump supporters’ self-esteem. In reaction to the lie and the threat it brought to the transition of power, there was a significant rise in support for violent political activism among Democrats, which only waned after efforts to overturn the election clearly failed. Even if these findings merely reflect partisan cheerleading, we nonetheless find significant and potentially long-term consequences of the lie. A conjoint experiment shows that Republican voters reward politicians who perpetuate the lie, giving Republican candidates an incentive to continue to do so in the next electoral cycle. These findings raise concerns about the fragility of American democracy.
Truex, R. 2022. “Political Discontent in China is Associated with Isolating Personality Traits." The Journal of Politics 84(4): 2172-2186.
Our personalities affect how we understand the political world, but research to date has focused almost exclusively on democratic contexts. How is personality related to political attitudes and behavior in authoritarian systems? Three original surveys of Chinese citizens show that discontented citizens in contemporary China are more fearful, disagreeable, and introverted, lacking close emotional attachments to others. Conversely, Chinese Communist Party members show high levels of extraversion and other traits associated with personal and professional success. These findings suggest a social element to regime support. China’s most dissatisfied citizens operate at the fringes of society, which may contribute to the durability of authoritarian rule in the country.
Shen, X., & R. Truex (2021). “In Search of Self-censorship.” British Journal of Political Science 51(4): 1672-1684.
Item nonresponse rates across regime assessment questions and nonsensitive items are used to create a self-censorship index, which can be compared across countries, over time and across population subgroups. For many authoritarian systems, citizens do not display higher rates of item nonresponse on regime assessment questions than their counterparts in democracies. This result suggests such questions may not be that sensitive in many places, which in turn raises doubts that authoritarian citizens are widely feigning positive attitudes towards regimes they secretly despise. Higher levels of self-censorship are found under regimes without electoral competition for the executive.
Truex, R. & D. L. Tavana. (2019). “Implicit Attitudes toward an Authoritarian Regime.” The Journal of Politics 81(3): 1014-1027.
Existing research on public opinion under authoritarianism focuses on the deliberative half of cognition. Yet in psychology, implicit attitudes and subconscious associations are often viewed as foundational, the basis for explicit attitudes and behavior. This article adapts the well-known Implicit Association Test to study Egyptian citizens’ attitudes toward President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Roughly 58% of respondents hold positive implicit attitudes toward Sisi. The data also allow for an investigation of attitude dissociation, whereby individuals hold distinct implicit and explicit attitudes toward a target object. Government employees and Coptic Christians are more likely to hold positive explicit attitudes toward Sisi but negative or neutral implicit attitudes. The correlation between explicit and implicit attitudes toward Sisi is weaker than found in comparable studies of democratic leaders, which provides evidence that self-presentational concerns are at work.
Tai, Q. & R. Truex (2015). “Public Opinion towards Return Migration: A Survey Experiment of Chinese Netizens.” The China Quarterly 223: 770-786.
China has adopted preferential measures in hopes of luring back overseas talent, but what determines individual attitudes towards returning migrants and policies promoting return migration? This paper addresses this question using an original survey experiment of Chinese netizens. We argue that attitudes towards return migration are driven by two competing perceptions: on one hand, skilled migrants are widely thought to have beneficial effects on the local economy; on the other, domestic citizens may be wary of policies that offer elite returnees excessive benefits. The findings imply that the CCP may face a delicate trade-off between the economic benefits of return migration and the social costs of increasing inequality.
Repression and Human Rights in China
Hou, Y., & Truex, R. (2022). Ethnic Discrimination in Criminal Sentencing in China. The Journal of Politics 84(4): 2294-2299.
This article presents the first analysis of ethnic discrimination in sentencing patterns in the People’s Republic of China, focusing on drug cases in Yunnan Province. We posit the problem minority hypothesis, which holds that discrimination in an authoritarian system emerges when an ethnic group becomes associated with behavior that generates social instability. On average, minority defendants in Yunnan receive sentences that are about 2.1–7.5 months longer than Han defendants who have committed similar drug crimes. Further analysis of data from all provinces reveals that this bias is largest for groups heavily involved in the drug trade.
Greitens, S. C. & R. Truex. (2020). “Repressive Experiences in the China Field: New Evidence from Survey Data.” The China Quarterly. 242: 349-375.
This paper examines the nature of China's current research climate and its effects on foreign scholarship. Drawing on an original survey of over 500 China scholars, we find that repressive research experiences are a rare but real phenomenon and collectively present a barrier to the conduct of research in China. Roughly 9 per cent of China scholars report that they have been “invited to tea” by authorities within the past ten years; 26 per cent of scholars who conduct archival research report being denied access; and 5 per cent of researchers report some difficulty obtaining a visa. The paper provides descriptive information on the nature of these experiences and their determinants. It concludes with a discussion of self-censorship and strategies for conducting research on China.
Truex, R. (2019). “Focal Points, Dissident Calendars, and Preemptive Repression.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 63(4): 1032-1052.
This article explains temporal variation in repression as a function of the “dissident calendar,” the set of events that serve as natural focal points for coordination. The core argument is that regimes can anticipate the events that create these focal points and engage in preemptive repression to survive their passing. This dynamic produces predictable, often cyclical patterns in repression. An analysis of dissident detentions in China from 1998 to 2014 shows that “focal events” alone appear to be responsible for more than 20 percent of dissident detentions over the analysis period. Such detentions tend to be shorter and rely less on formal criminal procedures, suggesting a “catch-and-release” dynamic. Additional analysis of detentions in Tibet shows how the calendar may vary by issue or group.
Authoritarian Parliaments and Policymaking
Truex, R. (2020). “Authoritarian Gridlock? Understanding Delay in the Chinese Legislative System.” Comparative Political Studies 53(9): 1455-1492.
Legislative gridlock is often viewed as a uniquely democratic phenomenon. The institutional checks and balances that produce gridlock are absent from authoritarian systems, leading many observers to romanticize “authoritarian efficiency” and policy dynamism. A unique data set from the Chinese case demonstrates that authoritarian regimes can have trouble passing laws and changing policies—48% of laws are not passed within the period specified in legislative plans, and about 12% of laws take more than 10 years to pass. This article develops a theory that relates variation in legislative outcomes to the absence of division within the ruling coalition and citizen attention shocks. Qualitative analysis of China’s Food Safety Law, coupled with shadow case studies of two other laws, illustrates the plausibility of the theoretical mechanisms. Division and public opinion play decisive roles in authoritarian legislative processes.
Truex, R. (2017). “The Myth of the Democratic Advantage.” Studies in Comparative International Development 52(3): 261-277.
Existing research points to a democratic advantage in public good provision. Compared to their authoritarian counterparts, democratically elected leaders face more political competition and must please a larger portion of the population to stay in office. This paper provides an impartial reevaluation of the empirical record using the techniques of global sensitivity analysis. Democracy proves to have no systematic association with a range of health and education outcomes, despite an abundance of published empirical and theoretical findings to the contrary.
Truex, R. (2017). “Consultative Authoritarianism and Its Limits.” Comparative Political Studies 50(3): 329-361.
Consultative authoritarianism challenges existing conceptions of nondemocratic governance. Citizen participation channels are designed to improve policymaking and increase feelings of regime responsiveness, but how successful are these limited reforms in stemming pressure for broader change? The article develops a new theoretical lens to explain how common citizens perceive the introduction of partially liberalizing reforms and tests the implications using an original survey experiment of Chinese netizens. Respondents randomly exposed to the National People’s Congress’ (NPC) new online participation portals show greater satisfaction with the regime and feelings of government responsiveness, but these effects are limited to less educated, politically excluded citizens.
Truex, R. (2016). Making Autocracy Work: Representation and Responsiveness in Modern China. Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics Series. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Can meaningful representation emerge in an authoritarian setting? If so, how, when, and why? Making Autocracy Work identifies the trade-offs associated with representation in authoritarian environments and then tests the theory through a detailed inquiry into the dynamics of China's National People's Congress (NPC, the country's highest formal government institution). Rory Truex argues that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is engineering a system of 'representation within bounds' in the NPC, encouraging deputies to reflect the needs of their constituents, but only for non-sensitive issues. This allows the regime to address citizen grievances while avoiding incendiary political activism. Data on NPC deputy backgrounds and behaviors is used to explore the nature of representation and incentives in this constrained system. The book challenges existing conceptions of representation, authoritarianism, and the future of the Chinese state. Consultative institutions like the NPC are key to making autocracy work.
Truex, R. (2014). “The Returns to Office in a ‘Rubber Stamp’ Parliament.” American Political Science Review 108(2): 235-251.
Are there returns to office in an authoritarian parliament? A new dataset shows that over 500 deputies to China’s National People’s Congress are CEOs of various companies. Entropy balancing is used to construct a weighted portfolio of Chinese companies that matches companies with NPC representation on relevant financial characteristics prior to the 11th Congress (2008–2012). The weighted fixed effect analysis suggests that a seat in the NPC is worth an additional 1.5 percentage points in returns and a 3 to 4 percentage point boost in operating profit margin in a given year. Additional evidence reveals that these rents stem primarily from the “reputation boost” of the position, and not necessarily formal policy influence. These findings confirm the assumptions of several prominent theories of authoritarian politics but suggest the need to further probe the nature of these institutions.